Evolving-Hockey | Player Cards

Notes for the GAR/xGAR Player Cards

- Player stats from seasons with less than 82 games have been prorated up to 82 games (12-13, 19-20, 20-21, and the current season if not yet finished)

For example, if there are 56 games in a season, all stats for that season are multipled by (82 / 56)
If a player played 40 games, the player's GP total would equal: 40 * (82 / 56) = 59
If a player had 5 EVO GAR, the player's EVO GAR total would equal: 5 * (82 / 56) = 7.3

- Stats for players who played on multiple teams are combined (1-Year is per season / 3-Year is over the entire 3-years included)

- The bar chart shows a specific player's GAR (Goals Above Replacement) and xGAR (Expected Goals Above Replacement) for the selected season (1-Year) or selected range (3-Year)

- The 1-Year Range shows the total GAR/xGAR at each component for the selected season. The 3-Year range shows a weighted average at each component for the 'Last Season' selected and the prior 2 seasons that player has played (not necessarily continuous)

- Percentile ranks are per position (F/D) relative to all "qualified" players in the selected timeframe. Players who do not qualify are denoted with a "-" as their rating

- "Qualified" All Situation TOI cutoffs (average TOI for the 13th F and 7th D on each team from 07-08 through 19-20):

1-Year Range - F: 428 all situation TOI / D: 604 all situation TOI
3-Year Range - F: 856 all situation TOI / D: 1208 all situation TOI

- The 3-Year Range is weighted for recency using the following weights in descending order: 49%, 32%, 19%. So, if the "Last Season" selected is 20192020, the 19-20 season would receive a weight of 49%, 18-19 would receive a weight of 32%, and 17-18 would receive a weight of 19%

For a season in progress, these weights are adjusted to shift more weight to the prior two seasons
For example, if a season is 50% complete, the 1st season weight would be reduced to 50% of the original value, and the difference would be divided up between the 2nd and 3rd season in a 60/40 split
Re-weighted example: 49% * 50% = 24.6% | 32% + (49% - ((49% * 50%) * 0.6)) = 47.2% | 19% + (49% - ((49% * 50%) * 0.4)) = 28.3%

- The 3-Year Range weights are derived from the coefficients of a linear regression predicting future GAR & xGAR using only the prior 3 seasons of GAR & xGAR, respectively

- An indication of '**' after the titles of the EV Offense or EV Defense plots indicates the player's value for that specific chart was outside the default plotting range. The default plotting range for the component charts (y-axis) are the 2.5% (min) and 97.5% (max) percentiles for the entire specific dataset per position

- For the 3-Year Range, players who qualify with only 2 seasons are included. Because these are weighted for recency based on prior 3 seasons, we create an "imputed 1st season" using the average performance of the 1st season for all players per position

- The TOI/GP Summary charts show the distribution of TOI/GP (Time On Ice per Game Played) for all players across the entire selected dataset (for the specific position). If a player falls outside the min or max x-axis limits, their TOI/GP is shown as a dashed line at the respective limit