Score Adjustments
All on-ice and relative to teammate metrics (EV, PP & SH – Skaters and Teams) are score adjusted using the method developed by Micah Blake McCurdy.
— 5v5 —
Goals:
| Home Score State | Home Weight | Away Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Trailing | 0.938 | 1.071 |
| Tied | 0.945 | 1.061 |
| Leading | 0.988 | 1.012 |
Expected Goals:
| Home Score State | Home Weight | Away Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Trailing | 0.923 | 1.091 |
| Tied | 0.954 | 1.051 |
| Leading | 0.991 | 1.010 |
Shots on Goal:
| Home Lead State | Home Weight | Away Weight |
|---|---|---|
| -3 or worse | 0.862 | 1.191 |
| -2 | 0.890 | 1.141 |
| -1 | 0.915 | 1.102 |
| 0 | 0.972 | 1.029 |
| +1 | 1.037 | 0.966 |
| +2 | 1.077 | 0.933 |
| +3 or better | 1.104 | 0.914 |
Fenwick Shots:
| Home Lead State | Home Weight | Away Weight |
|---|---|---|
| -3 or worse | 0.859 | 1.197 |
| -2 | 0.881 | 1.155 |
| -1 | 0.909 | 1.111 |
| 0 | 0.968 | 1.034 |
| +1 | 1.037 | 0.966 |
| +2 | 1.078 | 0.933 |
| +3 or better | 1.109 | 0.911 |
Corsi Shots:
| Home Lead State | Home Weight | Away Weight |
|---|---|---|
| -3 or worse | 0.843 | 1.230 |
| -2 | 0.866 | 1.182 |
| -1 | 0.899 | 1.127 |
| 0 | 0.970 | 1.032 |
| +1 | 1.053 | 0.952 |
| +2 | 1.105 | 0.913 |
| +3 or better | 1.140 | 0.891 |
— 4v4 —
Goals:
| Home Score State | Home Weight | Away Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Adjustment | 0.929 | 1.082 |
Expected Goals:
| Home Score State | Home Weight | Away Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Adjustment | 0.951 | 1.055 |
Shots on Goal:
| Home Lead State | Home Weight | Away Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Trailing | 0.939 | 1.070 |
| Tied | 0.969 | 1.033 |
| Leading | 1.029 | 0.973 |
Fenwick Shots:
| Home Lead State | Home Weight | Away Weight |
|---|---|---|
| -3 or worse | 0.933 | 1.077 |
| -2 | 0.931 | 1.079 |
| -1 | 0.938 | 1.071 |
| 0 | 0.973 | 1.029 |
| +1 | 1.027 | 0.975 |
| +2 | 1.040 | 0.963 |
| +3 or better | 1.060 | 0.947 |
Corsi Shots:
| Home Lead State | Home Weight | Away Weight |
|---|---|---|
| -3 or worse | 0.890 | 1.141 |
| -2 | 0.914 | 1.103 |
| -1 | 0.923 | 1.091 |
| 0 | 0.977 | 1.024 |
| +1 | 1.043 | 0.960 |
| +2 | 1.050 | 0.954 |
| +3 or better | 1.089 | 0.925 |
— 3v3 —
Goals:
| Home Score State | Home Weight | Away Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Adjustment | 1.033 | 0.969 |
Expected Goals:
| Home Score State | Home Weight | Away Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Adjustment | 1.006 | 0.994 |
Shots on Goal:
| Home Lead State | Home Weight | Away Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Adjustment | 0.991 | 1.009 |
Fenwick Shots:
| Home Lead State | Home Weight | Away Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Adjustment | 1.001 | 0.999 |
Corsi Shots:
| Home Lead State | Home Weight | Away Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Adjustment | 0.99 | 1.01 |
— 5v4 / 4v5*** —
Goals:
| Home Score State | Home Weight | Away Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Trailing | 0.860 | 1.183 |
| Tied | 0.933 | 1.077 |
| Leading | 0.980 | 1.006 |
Expected Goals:
| Home Score State | Home Weight | Away Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Trailing | 0.844 | 1.226 |
| Tied | 0.912 | 1.107 |
| Leading | 1.006 | 9.994 |
Shots on Goal:
| Home Score State | Home Weight | Away Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Trailing | 0.844 | 1.226 |
| Tied | 0.930 | 1.081 |
| Leading | 1.046 | 0.958 |
Fenwick Shots:
| Home Score State | Home Weight | Away Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Trailing | 0.843 | 1.229 |
| Tied | 0.926 | 1.087 |
| Leading | 1.039 | 0.964 |
Corsi Shots:
| Home Score State | Home Weight | Away Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Trailing | 0.841 | 1.233 |
| Tied | 0.930 | 1.082 |
| Leading | 1.052 | 0.953 |
*** Home & Away weights are reversed for shorthanded goals, xG, shots, fenwick, and corsi against
— 5v3 / 3v5*** —
Goals:
| Home Score State | Home Weight | Away Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Trailing | 0.840 | 1.234 |
| Tied | 0.927 | 1.085 |
| Leading | 0.935 | 1.075 |
Expected Goals:
| Home Score State | Home Weight | Away Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Trailing | 0.801 | 1.330 |
| Tied | 0.896 | 1.131 |
| Leading | 0.913 | 1.105 |
Shots on Goal:
| Home Score State | Home Weight | Away Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Trailing | 0.799 | 1.336 |
| Tied | 0.915 | 1.102 |
| Leading | 0.949 | 1.057 |
Fenwick Shots:
| Home Score State | Home Weight | Away Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Trailing | 0.798 | 1.340 |
| Tied | 0.906 | 1.115 |
| Leading | 0.932 | 1.078 |
Corsi Shots:
| Home Score State | Home Weight | Away Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Trailing | 0.798 | 1.338 |
| Tied | 0.903 | 1.121 |
| Leading | 0.954 | 1.051 |
*** Home & Away weights are reversed for shorthanded goals, xG, shots, fenwick, and corsi against
— 4v3 / 3v4*** —
Goals:
| Home Score State | Home Weight | Away Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Trailing | 0.769 | 1.429 |
| Tied | 0.923 | 1.091 |
| Leading | 0.883 | 1.153 |
Expected Goals:
| Home Score State | Home Weight | Away Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Trailing | 0.820 | 1.282 |
| Tied | 0.912 | 1.106 |
| Leading | 0.898 | 1.129 |
Shots on Goal:
| Home Score State | Home Weight | Away Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Trailing | 0.839 | 1.238 |
| Tied | 0.913 | 1.105 |
| Leading | 0.975 | 1.026 |
Fenwick Shots:
| Home Score State | Home Weight | Away Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Trailing | 0.814 | 1.297 |
| Tied | 0.921 | 1.093 |
| Leading | 0.941 | 1.066 |
Corsi Shots:
| Home Score State | Home Weight | Away Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Trailing | 0.841 | 1.234 |
| Tied | 0.925 | 1.088 |
| Leading | 0.953 | 1.052 |
*** Home & Away weights are reversed for shorthanded goals, xG, shots, fenwick, and corsi against
Penalty Goals
| Home Score State | Home Weight | Away Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Trailing | 1.172 | 0.872 |
| Tied | 1.053 | 0.952 |
| Leading | 0.958 | 1.045 |