Then there were four. The second round featured all four combinations of seven-game series outcomes, even if it felt like two ended in sweeps and two went to game sevens. Buffalo/Montreal had the fireworks, Carolina/Philadelphia was forgotten two weeks ago, Colorado/Minnesota was the “must watch” battle, and I’m pretty sure no one east of Nevada watched Vegas/Anaheim. We’re down to the final four teams from each conference that everyone expected to be here. Or at least the two longtime Cup favorites from each conference, a team that significantly damaged their future because they didn’t want to talk to people, and every Canadian’s favorite team The Montreal Canadiens. While this year’s Conference Finals features the most lopsided matchups we’ve seen in five years, there’s plenty of drama left to be filmed. I suppose it all circles around the sound of inevitability with Colorado and Carolina. I don’t know, maybe Montreal is the One (you like these Matrix Revolutions references?). It’s time for the 2026 Conference Finals. Let’s do the thing.

Results:

Eastern Conference

Carolina Hurricanes (M1)     vs.    Canadiens de Montréal (A3)

77.4%                         22.6%

Carolina and Montreal had, objectively, second-round series that couldn’t be more different for teams now facing each other in the Conference Finals. Not only does this matchup have the biggest disparity in second-round series probabilities for teams now meeting in the Conference Finals (Carolina 86.9% and Montreal 52.7%), the Canes played three less games than Montreal did and experienced the longest break between rounds in the playoffs since 1919 (the 1919 Canadiens, interestingly, had 12 days off). Carolina enters this series as the heavy favorites, and I think we all know why. Through the 8 total games they’ve played so far, the Hurricanes have out-everythinged their two prior opponents: among on-ice Goals, Corsi, xG (and SF/FF) all situations, they have yet to register a differential below 0. Sure their 5v5 shooting % is the lowest among the remaining teams by 2% and Frederik Andersen leads all playoff goalies in GSAx by 3, but even with the potential cracks, they remain the heavy favorite out of the East. It really does feel inevitable, but the real test will be whether their patented brand of hockey can continue this far (obviously, the models think it can because the Hurricanes are a model).

Man, what a series that was. As a lot of you know, we’ve been Buffalo Sabres fans since we were children (5 years ago), so The Twins were cheering for our boys in blue (the other blue). But you gotta hand it to the Habs, even if the rest of Canada wants nothing to do with their ascendance. One could probably argue they don’t really deserve to be here (last in 5v5 CF% and xGF%, first in 5v5 shooting % among the remaining playoff teams, etc etc.), but no one can argue that this Montreal team makes things dull. Montreal and Carolina have very few injury issues at the moment, but Montreal has played 6 more games than their Conference Final opponent and begins this series with only two days of rest. This matchup is interesting; four of their forward line-combinations (>40 minutes) have been on the ice for 16 goals more than against at 5v5. While this doesn’t mean anything substantial (since it’s on-ice goals in a small-sample), Carolina continues to rely on their strategy of Goofy-shooting 100 pucks towards the net with little care for scoring goals. Jakub Dobeš faltered briefly in their series with Buffalo, but he still remains second in GSAx among playoff goalies. Given their underdog status against Tampa and back-to-back game 7 wins, there might just be something here. There almost certainly isn’t, but I know the Carolina Haters are ready and waiting for it (even if every other part of Canada hates this).

Western Conference

Colorado Avalanche (C1)     vs.    Vegas Golden Knights (P1)

87.7%                         12.3%

While this isn’t the most lopsided series we’ve ever seen in our playoff projections, it might be the most lopsided among Conference Finals series we’ve ever run. Colorado is just flat-out dominant. Given the West’s, ummm, interesting spread of team strength, the Avs “hardest” matchup was all but guaranteed to happen in the second round, and even though Minnesota put up an admirable fight while dealing with several key injuries, there really wasn’t much chance (even if everyone in Minnesota believed except for the for the two of us). Again, as a Wild fan, I’m getting sick of singing Colorado’s praises, but they really are just that good. However, Minnesota did challenge them, and in at least two of the five games Colorado looked like they may have some issues. This might be a Minnesota thing since Dallas had a similar problem, but I have a hunch it’s more injury-related. Makar and MacKinnon both dealt with varying degrees of injuries during the second-round, and Malinski and Lehkonen are currently day-to-day heading into this series. From what we’ve gathered, it seems likely they’ll both play (Malinski more so than Lehkonen), and with the amount of rest they’ve had, I think it’s fair to assume Makar and MacKinnon will have had plenty of time to rest. The 2026 Stanley Cup Favorites really only have one thing to worry about: that they’re the heavy favorites heading into a Conference Final match against a team that finished with 26 fewer standings points in the regular season.

I knew we weren’t going to be done with this team. I just knew it. Vegas enters the Conference Finals for the fifth time in their nine year existence. Just think about that for a second. What the f**k. I mean, credit to the Knights, I guess: they know how to do the thing even if the thing lined up perfectly with their lackluster season that normally wouldn’t warrant a playoff spot. Compared to the Wild’s Dallas and Colorado straws, Vegas’ Utah and Anaheim’s straws were quite long (I tried something here). But in all honesty, the Golden Knights have risen to the occasion. While their on-ice results haven’t been spectacular, they’ve remained just like they were in the regular season: exceptionally average. None of their major shot metrics at 5v5 ventured past 50% by +/- 1%, and their shooting and goaltending have followed this trend. While their series against Anaheim was quite strange, somehow Vegas managed to deliver an even stranger outcome with their violation(s) of the NHL’s playoff media regulations, which may actually hang over the team heading into the Conference Final. I guarantee you Torts doesn’t care, but I mean that really is quite the penalty. Like we’ve mentioned over the past few weeks, Vegas has some pieces here, and Carter Hart has (unfortunately) performed much better than anticipated. But compared to Minnesota or Dallas, the Golden Knights are a weaker team, and with the loss of Mark Stone for the series, things are worse for the Knights. But you know what? Mitch Marner is thriving, and that’s quite funny to me personally.