If the first round of the NHL playoffs gets the chaos, sloppiness, and hysteria, the second round gets the drama. Toronto lost another game 7 in, quite frankly, the most boring way possible (getting absolutely demolished in an extremely one-sided affair that even Maple Leafs fans could only really be angry about). Winnipeg, on the other hand, lost following one of the most devastating scenarios we’ve ever seen, and I’m honestly still kind of heartbroken. Carolina continues rolling along with their 2017 statistical blueprint of Shot Volume and Power Kill, and Edmonton found their goalie again while trouncing the team I was cheering against (because they beat the Wild, of course, as that’s what one does).

Three of the most deserving teams from a statistical perspective move on to the Conference Finals along with the Stars – I’m only kidding, Colorado really did just play that well in the first round, and Dallas is climbing out of that statistical hole. Will Carolina force every future team to adopt their 100+ EV Corsi 20% xGF penalty kill per-game foundation? Will Florida continue to be the despicable but unfortunately quite good force out of the south? Can Jake Oettinger challenge Igor Shesterkin as the new Modern King of playoff goaltending? Or will McDavid finally win a Cup? It’s safe to say that, regardless of the prior round and the drama that came with it, both series are going to give us some good hockey. Or at least that’s the hope. Don’t mess this up Carolina.

Let’s see how we did, shall we?

Eastern Conference

Carolina Hurricanes (M2)     vs.     Florida Panthers (A3)

57.2%                         42.8%

As many know, The Evolving Hockey model has been wicked high on the Carolina Hurricanes this year – it loves the Hurricanes so much that it consistently puts all of our logs on the line, which inherently makes us super fans. So far, we haven’t lost the logs. When the analytics movement made its way to hockey in the mid-2010’s, a lot of it surrounded the success of teams with strong 5v5 Corsi results in the regular season and playoffs. Although we’ve reached a more efficient tier, this truth still holds. Carolina and Florida were the top two teams in 5v5 Corsi and expected-goals during the regular season and have been among the top 4 throughout this year’s playoffs, so we shouldn’t be shocked to see them meet again in the Eastern Conference Final.

Both teams have continued their 5v5 dominance in the playoffs. The Hurricanes are slinging roughly 1.25 shot attempts per minute at the opposing goaltender, slightly above their regular season rate. Meanwhile, the Panthers sit close to their regular season rate of 1.10. The Hurricanes have had less scoring, finishing below their expected goals while saving above their expected goals, while the Panthers are the opposite. Both teams also have terrific penalty kills – the theme of their game is to frustrate their opponents through aggressive defensive positioning. The Hurricanes have allowed only a single goal at 4v5 this postseason, which they made up by scoring one themselves.

When these two teams met in the Eastern Conference Final in 2022-23, Sergei Bobrovsky led the way for the Panthers in a sweep. The first game was legendary: Bob allowed only two goals while facing 6.87 expected goals. In game three, he managed a shutout while Florida only scored a single goal. With two teams that play such similar styles with such similar results, one player is bound to become the storyline here. God we hope it’s Carolina so we don’t look ridiculous. Also, I mean come on, are you really cheering for Florida here?

Western Conference

Dallas Stars (C2)     vs.     Edmonton Oilers (P3)

49.6%                         50.4%

The Stars have, so far, taken part in two very dramatic series – and they’re heading into another one against arguably the two best current players in the NHL and their quest for a Cup. After being severely out-chanced by Colorado in the first round and playing under the extremely sad circumstances of Mark Scheifele’s father’s passing in the second round, we witnessed one of the more traumatizing series finales in recent memory. As a Playoff Jets fan, it sucked and I don’t want to think about it. The Stars, however, earned their second-round victory with a significant improvement in overall 5v5 metrics; although shutout twice, they led the Jets in xGF% and went even in shot attempts. We had Dallas as slight favorites in Round 2 with the welcomed return of Jason Robertson and Miro Heiskanen, but the real story here may just be Mikael Granlund’s ascension to his prior 2016 self. Rounding out the top line with Hintz and Rantanen, the chemistry there has become something truly potent for Dallas this spring (sorry, I can only talk about Rantanen so much). That said, Jake Oettinger is (well, should be, but he is) the Stars’ Conn Smythe nominee – while his performance was arguably more impressive against Colorado, he finished this series with almost 6 goals saved above expected finishing all six games with a positive GSAx. Not uncommon for any give playoff series, this one may just come down to the goaltending, which everyone loves about hockey all the time.

The Edmonton Oilers. Canada’s last hope. Everyone in Canada has always known this and also hoped it would be this way. While a promising group of Canadian teams entered the second round, Edmonton moved on alone. The biggest question for the Oilers heading into the second round was goaltending, and after two solid starts from Pickard, the Oilers went back to our controversial favorite Stuart Skinner for the last three games – no one has ever doubted our models re: Skinner and/or let us know about those doubts (including us). With shutouts in the final two games of the series, it appears Skinner will be Edmonton’s choice in net, and Evolving Hockey is feeling pretty good about our little models that could. Edmonton’s turned into a sort of weird expected-goal monster these playoffs, trailing only Colorado in all playoff teams at 5v5. Powered almost exclusively by their top 6, Zach Hyman has been the glue. Among all forward lines in the playoffs with at least 25 minutes together, the Oilers have five line combinations in the top 30, and Hyman has been on three of them. With a resurgent goalie and possibly the best-performing defensemen group in the playoffs (Jake Walman and John Klingberg have been fantastic for the Oilers so far), the Oilers head into Dallas with a dead-even chance against an opponent that’s, so far, had everything go their way. We’re now officially in the “will McDavid ever win a Cup” narrative, like fighting a video game boss that you’ve never defeated. I, for one, am completely ready to beat that boss. Edmonton has never let Canada down.