We’re back, once again. I know it’s been quite a while since we’ve posted something on this site, which we created with a front page that has ample space for articles (it’s been precisely since our team projections preview article from October, which I’m sure isn’t obvious at all). We apologize for that, we’re working on it. However, it’s never too late to get back on the Content Grind. If you haven’t been paying attention, the NHL trade deadline for the ’24-25 season is fast approaching – it’s in 5 days. Last year we released our first installment of the “Big Board”, and after its resounding success (we don’t have ads on our site, so success is subjective and also questionable, but it was a wild success), we thought it’d be fun to add this exercise to our annual list of exercises and do it again.
With only an actual handful of days until the deadline, we’ve already seen a couple a major moves this season. The obvious ones being Rantanen to Carolina, J.T. Miller to New York, and the recent deal that sent Seth Jones to Florida. That said, there are still quite a few players that may change teams over the next week. We’re here to cover our top targets at the deadline with that patented Evolving Hockey approach you know and love. Get in losers, we’re evaluating some potentially available hockey players.
The Process
Last year we found a process that worked quite well for this, and we’re more or less sticking to it this year. However, one thing did happen last summer that changed quite a lot for us: CapFriendly stopped existing. Since 2024 NHL free agency, we’ve been logging contracts ourselves in-house, and we’ll be using those going forward (we’ll have more on that as we get closer to the release of our contract projection model for the 2025 offseason this upcoming May). We still have the “old” CF data we’ve always had, so we’re able to utilize said data for the player availability portion of this.
Note: We had a lot of comments last year that misunderstood the way we went about this. To clarify things, this exercise is not meant to evaluate players that we think are the *most likely* to get traded. Rather, we’re using the data at our disposal (while setting a few parameters) to see which players come out as the best trade targets for potential buyers at the deadline. There’s a reason David Savard or Brandon Tanev aren’t present here.
The overall process looks like this (copied and altered from last year since I did such a good job explaining it then). We’re first targeting all players currently signed to a contract that will expire at the end of the ’24-25 season. This is our baseline. From this, we will remove several different groups of players who will likely be unavailable for acquisition over the next week or so. The following groups of players have been excluded:
- Any player that signed a contract extension since last summer (50 total players)
- Any player that has already been traded this season (44 total players)
- It’s possible we may see one of these players traded again (Rantanen, I guess?), but for simplicity we are not including them here
- Any player with an expiring contract that didn’t play in either the ’22-23 or ’23-24 season (this includes any player currently playing in their first NHL season)
- Any player currently playing on a team with a probability of making the playoffs above 50% per our team projections at the time of publication
With that, let’s get to the Big Board.
The Big Board
There it is. The methodology here is very similar to what we did last year, the data is just a bit different. We’ve taken all skaters who meet the above criteria, weighted their prior 2-3 year performance per our GAR & xGAR metrics per season (3/2/1 weights), averaged the two, and sorted them. This season we actually have quite a few more RFAs topping the Big Board than we did last season. Because of this, we’ve extended the total number to 25 players (compared to 20 last year). It’s unlikely that any of these players are traded at the deadline, but you never really can know when it comes to the Flyers. Of note, Anthony Mantha actually ranked just behind Marchand in our list, but given his ACL injury last November, we’ve deemed it unlikely he’ll be traded this season and removed him as a possible target. That said, he’s still been quite good.
We’ve once again omitted goalies from our Big Board due to predictive uncertainty and overall variance in teams trading for “good” goalies at the deadline. Adin Hill and Jake Allen are both on expiring contracts having solid seasons with their respective teams, but it seems unlikely Vegas or New Jersey would consider trading either. Interestingly, John Gibson’s name has been floating around the past few months amidst injury concerns, and at 31 among the top-30 goalies in our GAR model this season, it wouldn’t surprise me if a team in need of a backup goes after him. I can’t believe John Gibson is only 31.
The RFAs
First, let’s chat a little about the RFAs populating the Big Board. One of them is covered below (no spoilers), but there’s a surprising number of high-quality young skaters without contract extensions heading into the deadline. The Sabres (McLeod, Peterka), Islanders (Dobson, Romanov), and Philadelphia (Foerster, Cates, and York) standout here as three teams that may be interested in changing directions with less than a 5% chance of making the playoffs per our model. Almost all of these players have, at one point over the past few seasons, been among our favorites, and the Flyers listed here top that favorites list. Cates and Foerster have each found themselves in various Selke and/or Calder lists from us in recent years. Throw in Cam York and the question of why the Flyers haven’t extended any of these players, who have all been well above average at such a young age, becomes quite glaring. Moving any RFA around the deadline is tricky (and not technically necessary given the rights involved), but with the wealth of young talent “available”, the market seems primed for movement here.
Brad Marchand
We considered removing Marchand since all reports seem to indicate he plans to stay with the Bruins for the rest of his career. No one has ever agreed to something they’ve previously said they wouldn’t do, especially when it comes to changing NHL teams, right? I don’t remember Mikko Koivu playing for the Blue Jackets at all. Marchand tops our list of “available” UFAs this deadline, and for good reason. Even at 36, Marchand has still been quite good for the Bruins. He ranks 7th in career xGAR and 8th in career GAR per our model since he entered the league in 2009, which is honestly an incredible feat. Par for the course, with age he’s experienced some decline, but we’ve also seen a major decline from teammate quality available for him; he’s still been among the top-3 skaters over the last three seasons in RAPM CF +/- per 60 at EV for Boston. The Bruins are technically within reach of a playoff spot (our model has them ~25% chance of making the playoffs), so it’s possible they may keep him and see how things transpire given the lackluster wild card race out east. That said, Marchand is still a very well-rounded player with a veteran/winning pedigree and well-documented grit coming off a great 4 Nations tournament. It would not surprise me at all if Boston considers moving him at the deadline if the return makes sense.
Kyle Palmieri
It seems like Kyle Palmieri should be 40 years old. I don’t really know why… He’s at least as old as Joe Pavelski, right? Oh wait, he’s actually younger than I am? No… that can’t be right. Regardless, this 34-year-old grizzled veteran has played with ANA, N.J, and NYI for 5-6 seasons each throughout his career. He may be 34, but he is still very serviceable – some may even argue he has been solidly above average. Most of his value over the past 3 seasons has come on the even-strength offense side of things – per our xGAR sub models, he is quite good at generating shot quality when on the ice (not so much from the shot volume side of things). What’s more, he’s shot 14.3% at all situations over the past 3 seasons with the Islanders, and his xGAR shooting value added over that same stretch places him 69th out of 433 forwards (1000 minute TOI cutoff). He’s on the last year of a $5M contract and would be a great add as a 2nd or 3rd liner on a contending team looking to stock up in the veteran presence/forward depth department. I’m a little surprised he’s not being talked about as much as his teammate that we’re about to talk about right … now
Brock Nelson
Possibly the player with the most interest swirling around them in the media, Nelson comes in 3rd among UFAs on the big board here. While Palmieri rates slightly better, it’s understandable why teams would be interested in the 33-year-old Minnesotan center. Over the last three seasons, almost all of Nelson’s value has come from even-strength shooting, which his points here reflect. That said, his overall shooting value has dropped year-over-year per our xGAR model (9.19, 5.07, and 1.79 overall goals in shooting value, sequentially). Brock has never been a particularly valuable player in shot rate generation at even-strength, and given his most common teammate over the last three seasons has been the aforementioned Palmieri (~80% of EV time spent together), there is quite the interesting case study here in which mid-30s Islander forward is the better add for a team this deadline. That said, Nelson has clearly been the better shooter over the past three seasons, and a team looking for that might find Nelson more appealing. Personally, if I was the Minnesota Wild, I might stay away on Friday. But I’ve never been able to get the Wild to do anything except keep Spurgeon forever (good move, all of our posts over the years convinced the Wild).
Ryan Donato
The Chicago Blackhawks. What a team! There’s a lot one can say about this terrible group of players, but let’s keep it positive: they currently have ten skaters above replacement level in our xGAR model this season compared to the 4 they had last season. That’s progress. Donato currently sits second among them this season, and given the Blackhawks are statistically eliminated per our team projection system, surely they’ll be willing to sell basically anything that isn’t one specific player I won’t name here. At 28, Donato has already played for five teams in nine seasons, but he’s shown some interesting value in his later 20s. Almost all of this value has come from shooting this season, but he’s backed that up with solid xG numbers even if his underlying rate metrics are bit lackluster. Donato’s moved immensely around Chicago’s lineup during his tenure there: he’s played no more than a third of his time with any one player at even-strength, which is both a generally unexciting position for any skater and possibly says more about the Blackhawks than anything else. Donato will likely never slot in past the 3rd line for a playoff team, but as far as depth adds on an expiring $2M deal who can clearly play with as many people as you can throw at him go, Donato is about as good a bet as any.
Jason Zucker
Zucker, 33, is another UFA coming to end of a $5M contract… This time it’s a one-year deal with the Sabres who have obviously under-performed preseason expectations (including ours – https://evolving-hockey.com/blog/2024-2025-team-point-projections/). It would make a ton of sense for the Sabres to unload some of their pending UFAs at the deadline given their current situation (Greenway being another one we’re not covering). Zucker has been shuffled around the Sabres lineup a lot (a trend I fear) – his highest 5v5 TOI% teammate is Ryan McLeod at 38.3% (and the underlying shot metrics of his line with Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch was rather awful, posting a 39.8% CF% at 5v5 through 108 minutes). Regardless, Zucker is having the best season of his career on the powerplay per our xGAR model – mostly from shooting value added, so grain of salt I suppose. He could be an interesting add for a team looking to experiment with a powerplay change. Otherwise, he’s only getting older and his defensive numbers have, concerningly, declined over the past 3+ years (posting a career worst -2.6 EVD xGAR through 54 games this season). That said, it’s Jason Zucker. The Wild legend. How could you go wrong?
Reilly Smith
What do we have here? Another 33-year-old UFA on an expiring $5M contract: Reilly Smith. Like Buffalo, the Rangers’ season has been quite the disappointment. New York as a state is struggling this year. The Rangers are just on the outside of the playoff bubble per our Team Point Projections (sitting at 44% as of publication); however, they may want to keep Smith if they think they can make a run. Like Palmieri, Reilly Smith is a very useful veteran. Over the past 3 years his 15.0 xSPAR ranks 169 out of 433 forwards (1000 minute all sit TOI cutoff). He’s been very solid in most of the components that make up our xGAR model (mainly EVO and special teams) – nothing too impressive, nothing too awful. We’d have him as one of our top UFA trade targets for a team that could fit in his cap hit, even if his name isn’t necessarily of the marquee variety. He’s also Shawn’s favorite player, so that should count for something.
Yanni Gourde
Yanni Gourde is one of the original analytics darlings from the pre-COVID era. The 32-year-old is on the last year of his $5.17M contract, and he’s honestly only fallen off a little bit since he was taken by Seattle in the 2021 expansion draft. It’s hard to say things haven’t worked out in Seattle, but it might be a good time for the Kraken to move on given their bleak playoff chances (and the fact that signing another aging UFA at this stage may not be a very good idea … cough, cough, Chandler Stephenson). Gourde has been a very consistent driver of even-strength C±/60 per our RAPM model throughout his career, and his +4.38 CF/60 RAPM ranks 14th out 417 forwards from 22-23 through 24-25 (1000 minute EV TOI cutoff). He’s also has never been below replacement in either of our EVO and EVD xGAR ratings. His ability to drive shot-rates-for and limit shot-rates-against has been quite consistent into his 30s. If a team is looking to add a very solid “two-way” player that will likely improve their even-strength play, Gourde would be a great candidate (just don’t expect much in the special teams department).
Ryan McLeod
I know we already covered the large group of expiring RFAs a bit earlier, but given this player takes the number one spot on our Big Board and the possible availability rumors, I think he warrants a section here. McLeod is our kind of guy. Mid-20s third line defensive forward all-star with exceptionally solid shorthanded numbers that Edmonton didn’t want? Sign me up. Like most of the Sabres, McLeod has moved around the lineup quite a bit this season (his most common forward linemates are Jason Zucker and Jordan Greenway, playing with each around 25-35% at even-strength… we talked about this already I think). While point totals don’t matter, he’s averaged a reasonable enough amount that I wouldn’t be surprised if teams are interested in the 25-year-old as a depth add that’s been quite effective on the penalty kill. Given their dreadful season after increased expectations, the Sabres obviously have numerous choices about how they move forward here. With Peterka and Byram also heading into the summer without contracts for next season, I think we’re going to see some movement from Buffalo. Or maybe not. They haven’t really done anything to support this theory at all.
Conclusion
As with every deadline, nothing is predictable. Compared to last year, the crop of players available this season is arguably just as good, even after several high-level players have already changed teams. While the collective we, as fans, are always more interested in buyers at the deadline, the number of out-of-it teams with “available” players, specifically RFAs, that may be unexpected sellers seems far more interesting. Like most deadlines, very few expiring players will make a current contending team substantially better. That said, the players we’ve highlighted here are our picks for any contending team. I kind of wish Anthony Mantha was healthy so he could top the leaderboard once again.