Goals Above Replacement


Goals Above Average & Replacement (Skaters):

  • Goals Above Replacement (GAR, WAR, and SPAR) is a metric that attempts to assign a total value to each player, which represents how much that player contributed to their team in a single number. This single number is comprised of multiple components that are ratings for each area of play within a given sport. Please reference our series on Hockey-Graphs (part 1part 2part 3) for any and all information about the model found on our site.
Metric Definition
EVO Even-Strength Offense Goals Above Average/Replacement (per position)
EVD Even-Strength Defense Goals Above Average/Replacement (inverted, per position)
PPO Powerplay Offense Goals Above Average/Replacement (per position)
SHD Shorthanded Defense Goals Above Average/Replacement (per position)
Take Penalties Taken Goals Above Average/Replacement (inverted, per position)
Draw Penalties Drawn Goals Above Average/Replacement (per position)
Off Total Offense: EVO + PPO
Def Total Defense: EVD + SHD
Pens Total Penalty Goals: Take + Draw
GAR Goals Above Replacement
WAR Wins Above Replacement
SPAR Standing Points Above Replacement

 

Replacement Level (Skaters):

Metric Definition
Even-Strength Offense (EVO) Aggregate rate below average of all skaters outside the top 13 F or top 7 D per team per season (’07-’19)
Even-Strength Defense (EVD) Aggregate rate below average of all skaters outside the top 13 F or top 7 D per team per season (’07-’19)
Powerplay Offense (PPO) Aggregate rate below average of all skaters outside the top 11 skaters per team per season (per position, ’07-’19)
Shorthanded Defense (SHD) Aggregate rate below average of all skaters outside the top 11 skaters per team per season (per position, ’07-’19)
Penalties Taken (Take) Aggregate rate below average of all skaters outside the top 13 F or top 7 D per team per season (all situations, ’07-’19)
Penalties Drawn (Draw) Aggregate rate below average of all skaters outside the top 13 F or top 7 D per team per season (all situations, ’07-’19)

 

Goals Above Average & Replacement TOI Thresholds (Skaters):

Metric Definition
Even-Strength (EVO & EVD) 60 minutes
Powerplay Offense (PPO) 25 minutes
Shorthanded Defense (EVD) 25 minutes
Penalties (Take + Draw) None

 

Note: players who fall below these TOI thresholds are “regressed” to average (0.0)

 

Goals Above Average & Replacement (Goalies):

Metric Definition
FA_EV Total even-strength fenwick shots against
FA_SH Total shorthanded fenwick shots against
EVD Even-Strength Defense Goals Above Average/Replacement (inverted)
SHD Shorthanded Defense Goals Above Average/Replacement (inverted)
Take Penalties Taken Goals Above Average/Replacement (inverted)
Draw Penalties Drawn Goals Above Average/Replacement
GAA/GAR/WAR/SPAR EVD + SHD + Take + Draw (converted to WAR/SPAR as necessary)

 

Penalty Goals:

Metric Definition
Take Count Total penalties taken
Draw Count Total penalties drawn
Take Goals Total goal value of all penalties taken (inverted)
Draw Goals Total goal value of all penalties drawn
Take AA Penalties Taken Goals Above Average (per position, inverted)
Draw AA Penalties Drawn Goals Above Average (per position)
Pens AA Take AA + Draw AA

 

Penalties included are from all strength state situations

The Take Goals and Draw Goals values are score & venue adjusted

The following penalties are removed:

  • Offsetting penalties (strength state moves from 5v5 -> 4v4, for example)
  • Superfluous penalites (additional game misconducts, unsportsmanlike conducts, etc.)

 

Goals Per Win / Standing Point:

To convert goals to wins/standing points, we follow the method developed by Dave Laidig at American Soccer Analysis. A single linear regression is run where team wins per game is the independent variable and team goal differential per game is the dependent variable. The resulting coefficient for team goal differential is used as the goals to win conversion factor. The same process is used for standing points (team standing points per game is substituted for team wins per game).

There are very few observations per season (30/31 teams in a season) so we use a “rolling average” approach to determine the conversion factor. For example, the goals to wins conversion for the ’18-19 season includes the team results from the ’16-17, ’17-18, and ’18-19 seasons. Additionally, each season is weighted in the regression based on recency (in this case ’16-17 has a weight of 1, ’17-18 has a weight of 2, and ’18-19 has a weight of 3). This produces a more stable conversion while maintaining the league environment for the season that is being evaluated.

Here are the goals to win/standing point conversions from ’07-08 to ’18-19:

season Goals Per Standing Point Goals Per Win
07-08 2.872 5.525
08-09 2.872 5.525
09-10 2.872 5.525
10-11 2.922 5.600
11-12 3.093 5.733
12-13 2.908 5.389
13-14 2.820 5.279
14-15 2.754 5.252
15-16 2.696 5.182
16-17 2.745 5.312
17-18 2.683 5.132
18-19 2.850 5.364
19-20 2.927 5.620

 

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