Goals Above Replacement
Goals Above Average & Replacement (Skaters):
- Goals Above Replacement (GAR, WAR, and SPAR) is a metric that attempts to assign a total value to each player, which represents how much that player contributed to their team in a single number. This single number is comprised of multiple components that are ratings for each area of play within a given sport. Please reference our full Wins Above Replacement series (part 1, part 2, part 3) for any and all information about the model found on our site.
| Metric | Definition |
|---|---|
| EVO | Even-Strength Offense Goals Above Average/Replacement (per position) |
| EVD | Even-Strength Defense Goals Above Average/Replacement (inverted, per position) |
| PPO | Powerplay Offense Goals Above Average/Replacement (per position) |
| SHD | Shorthanded Defense Goals Above Average/Replacement (per position) |
| Take | Penalties Taken Goals Above Average/Replacement (inverted, per position) |
| Draw | Penalties Drawn Goals Above Average/Replacement (per position) |
| Off | Total Offense: EVO + PPO |
| Def | Total Defense: EVD + SHD |
| Pens | Total Penalty Goals: Take + Draw |
| GAR | Goals Above Replacement |
| WAR | Wins Above Replacement |
| SPAR | Standing Points Above Replacement |
Replacement Level (Skaters):
| Metric | Definition |
|---|---|
| Even-Strength Offense (EVO) | Aggregate rate below average of all skaters outside the top 13 F or top 7 D per team per season (’07-’19) |
| Even-Strength Defense (EVD) | Aggregate rate below average of all skaters outside the top 13 F or top 7 D per team per season (’07-’19) |
| Powerplay Offense (PPO) | Aggregate rate below average of all skaters outside the top 11 skaters per team per season (per position, ’07-’19) |
| Shorthanded Defense (SHD) | Aggregate rate below average of all skaters outside the top 11 skaters per team per season (per position, ’07-’19) |
| Penalties Taken (Take) | Aggregate rate below average of all skaters outside the top 13 F or top 7 D per team per season (all situations, ’07-’19) |
| Penalties Drawn (Draw) | Aggregate rate below average of all skaters outside the top 13 F or top 7 D per team per season (all situations, ’07-’19) |
Goals Above Average & Replacement TOI Thresholds (Skaters):
| Metric | Definition |
|---|---|
| Even-Strength (EVO & EVD) | 60 minutes |
| Powerplay Offense (PPO) | 25 minutes |
| Shorthanded Defense (EVD) | 25 minutes |
| Penalties (Take + Draw) | None |
Note: players who fall below these TOI thresholds are “regressed” to average (0.0)
Goals Above Average & Replacement (Goalies):
| Metric | Definition |
|---|---|
| FA EV | Total even-strength fenwick shots against |
| FA SH | Total shorthanded fenwick shots against |
| EVD | Even-Strength Defense Goals Above Average/Replacement (inverted) |
| SHD | Shorthanded Defense Goals Above Average/Replacement (inverted) |
| Take | Penalties Taken Goals Above Average/Replacement (inverted) |
| Draw | Penalties Drawn Goals Above Average/Replacement |
| GAA/GAR/WAR/SPAR | EVD + SHD + Take + Draw (converted to WAR/SPAR as necessary) |
Penalty Goals:
| Metric | Definition |
|---|---|
| Take Count | Total penalties taken |
| Draw Count | Total penalties drawn |
| Take Goals | Total goal value of all penalties taken (inverted) |
| Draw Goals | Total goal value of all penalties drawn |
| Take AA | Penalties Taken Goals Above Average (per position, inverted) |
| Draw AA | Penalties Drawn Goals Above Average (per position) |
| Pens AA | Take AA + Draw AA |
Penalties included are from all strength state situations
The Take Goals and Draw Goals values are score & venue adjusted
The following penalties are removed:
- Offsetting penalties (strength state moves from 5v5 -> 4v4, for example)
- Superfluous penalites (additional game misconducts, unsportsmanlike conducts, etc.)
Goals Per Win / Standing Point:
To convert goals to wins/standing points, we follow the method developed by Dave Laidig at American Soccer Analysis. A single linear regression is run where team wins per game is the independent variable and team goal differential per game is the dependent variable. The resulting coefficient for team goal differential is used as the goals to win conversion factor. The same process is used for standing points (team standing points per game is substituted for team wins per game).
There are very few observations per season (30/31 teams in a season) so we use a “rolling average” approach to determine the conversion factor. For example, the goals to wins conversion for the ’18-19 season includes the team results from the ’16-17, ’17-18, and ’18-19 seasons. Additionally, each season is weighted in the regression based on recency (in this case ’16-17 has a weight of 1, ’17-18 has a weight of 2, and ’18-19 has a weight of 3). This produces a more stable conversion while maintaining the league environment for the season that is being evaluated.
Here are the goals to win/standing point conversions from 07-08 to 20-21:
| season | Goals Per Standing Point | Goals Per Win |
|---|---|---|
| 07-08 | 2.872 | 5.525 |
| 08-09 | 2.872 | 5.525 |
| 09-10 | 2.872 | 5.525 |
| 10-11 | 2.922 | 5.600 |
| 11-12 | 3.093 | 5.733 |
| 12-13 | 2.908 | 5.389 |
| 13-14 | 2.820 | 5.279 |
| 14-15 | 2.754 | 5.252 |
| 15-16 | 2.696 | 5.182 |
| 16-17 | 2.745 | 5.312 |
| 17-18 | 2.683 | 5.132 |
| 18-19 | 2.850 | 5.364 |
| 19-20 | 2.927 | 5.620 |
| 20-21 | 2.992 | 5.571 |